The Impact of COVID-19 on EU Drug Markets

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by Besim Likmeta

Introduction

Restriction measures on movement and the increased presence of security forces on the streets have had a positive effect on low-level violent crime. However, drug-related violence is reported to be increasing in some EU countries and local conflicts over distribution and territory have been noted.

Impact on the legal economy

The economic impact of the pandemic will be a key factor in shaping the landscape of organised crime in the EU. The expected post-pandemic recession may lead to a reduction in the prices of goods and a downturn in economics sectors preferred by criminals. The real estate and construction sectors will become more attractive for money laundering. In addition, criminals will continue to invest the profits from illicit activities in financial markets.

Cash-intensive businesses such as restaurants, casinos and beauty salons have long been used to launder illicit profits, by integrating illegal gains with legitimate revenue. However, with the diminishing relevance of cash as a payment medium during the crisis, it’s unclear what other forms of money laundering will be employed in the future.

Drug supply in prisons

In order to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in prisons, changes to prison rules have been made in some countries, such as restrictions on visits. This has indirectly led to a decrease in the availability of drugs in some prisons and this has sparked violent reactions from some prisoners in France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. Under these more restrictive conditions, new methods to smuggle drugs into prisons may appear (e.g. the use of drones).

Trafficking, supply and distribution

The trafficking of drugs by maritime shipping or commercial air freight has continued at similar levels to those in the pre-pandemic period. Meanwhile, the travel restrictions and additional controls imposed on citizens at many EU borders have led to diminished intra-European trafficking using couriers.

Drug distributors have adapted their way of working to the Covid-19 regime, for example impersonating particular professions in order to move around at specific times of the day. Home delivery is being used more regularly than before. The use of commercial vehicles and corporate vests to impersonate food delivery workers in order to deliver drugs has now become more apparent.

To avoid contact, the ‘dead drop’ technique, borrowed from espionage tradecraft, appears to have gained in popularity as a method of drug distribution. Moreover, the increasing demand for supplies such as gloves, masks and hand sanitiser products has been exploited by criminals, who hope that border controls for these types of goods may be less rigorous. In one case in April 2020, 14 kg of cocaine was found concealed in a delivery of face
masks during border checks in the United Kingdom.

Technology: the darknet, social media and secure communication apps

An increasing number of consumers has turned to online methods to source drugs. In Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Finland, France, the Netherlands and Spain the use of mobile apps has been reported; in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Finland and the Netherlands the use of the darknet markets has been noted; and in Bulgaria, Croatia and the Netherlands the use of the surface web has been reported. There has been an increase in the use of encrypted communication too, posing difficulties for continuous monitoring.

Changes in drug price and availability at consumer level

Cannabis

The two main illicit cannabis products used in Europe are herbal cannabis and cannabis resin. Demand for cannabis products does not seem to have changed.

Herbal cannabis

Domestic production of herbal cannabis does not appear to have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. A decrease in availability and an increase in prices of herbal cannabis at retail and/or wholesale levels of the market has been reported. Increases in the retail prices of herbal cannabis in some Member States imply that there have been supply shortages during the pandemic, likely linked to distribution issues.

The reduced availability may be a temporary effect possibly resulting from disruption to drug markets due to social distancing, the stockpiling of cannabis, or the closure of borders, restricting trafficking between countries. In Albania, which is a producer of herbal cannabis for the European market, the cultivation of herbal cannabis is expected to increase as law enforcement resources are diverted to enforce compliance with COVID-19 restriction measures.

Cannabis resin

The main source of cannabis resin used in Europe is Morocco. Law enforcement action in Morocco and Spain has caused cannabis resin shortages in the north of Europe, although this change was under way before the pandemic. Once in the EU, cannabis resin is mainly distributed by land and so the closing of internal borders has affected the availability of cannabis resin in some locations, leading to a marked increase in prices of cannabis resin and the emergence of new maritime trafficking routes.

Heroin

Heroin production appears to have been unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic to date. Trafficking continues on many of the main trafficking routes, although some modi operandi are preferred over others due to restrictions implemented in response to the pandemic. Commercial goods are often used as cover loads. A decrease in availability, an increase in price and a decrease in purity of heroin at the wholesale (per kg) and retail level has been noted.

Cocaine

Trafficking of cocaine using maritime shipping containers appears to be unaffected, as suggested by the frequent seizures of large shipments at key European ports. Trafficking of cocaine by air passengers has dramatically decreased due to travel restrictions. Experts in some countries have noted an increase in price and a decrease in purity of cocaine at the consumer level, indicating that there may be some localised supply issues. Trafficking by post and parcel services may be increasing, in part because of trade on darknet markets.

Amphetamine, MDMA and methamphetamine

Globally, the demand for synthetic drugs used in recreational settings has significantly diminished because of the closure of clubs and similar venues and the cancellation of music festivals, leading to a decline in orders for synthetic drugs produced in Europe. Europe is an important producer of amphetamine, MDMA and methamphetamine for consumption in Europe and also for the export market.

The production of synthetic drugs is dependent on the availability of the drug precursors. Drug precursors and the chemicals used to make them are shipped to Europe mainly from China. Any shortages of precursors may prompt producers to use alternative substances, which may result in unexpected drug products that may present additional risks to consumers.

The Netherlands and Belgium are well known production locations for amphetamine and MDMA. The Netherlands and, to a lesser extent, Belgium are also emerging as production centres with a significant output of methamphetamine, intended for trafficking to destinations outside the EU, such as Japan and Australia.

To date, the production of synthetic drugs in the Netherlands and Belgium appears to be unaffected by the COVID-19 restrictions. MDMA continues to be exported from Europe using post and parcel services, probably related to darknet market sales. In addition, synthetic drugs produced in Europe continue to be shipped in large quantities by maritime transport to other continents. The wholesale prices of amphetamine and MDMA have increased in several countries; however, the Netherlands, a major producer, has reported decreasing prices.