by Besim Likmeta

Introduction

Information from local sources, documents and satellite imagery suggests that a methamphetamine industry is rapidly being established in Afghanistan. In the past, the production of methamphetamine was based on pseudoephedrine extracted from over-the-counter medicines such as cough syrups or decongestants, imported from Iran or Pakistan. But recently, those involved in the Afghan drug trade have found out that the ephedra plants growing in the highlands are also a potential source of ephedrine for methamphetamine manufacture.

Traders purchase the fresh ephedra crop in mountainous villages in districts such as Baghran, in northern Helmand, or Taywara, in the central province of Ghor, and then they ship it for sale on a wholesale market of Bakwa district in Farah province.

In Bakwa, the process of making methamphetamine from pseudoephedrine extracted from over-the counter medicines, such as cough syrups and decongestants, would occur under the work of one cook in a single building. The move to plant-based production in Bakwa appears to have changed this, creating a two-tiered production system, with separate laboratories for extracting ephedrine from ephedra plants and for making methamphetamine from the ephedrine. 

The extraction of ephedrine from plants

Extracting ephedrine from the dried and ground ephedra plant requires only basic skills. A large number of households in Bakwa have taken up production. In addition, ‘factories’ also have emerged across the district of Bakwa. These factories employ up to seven people and process up to 450 kg of ephedra at a time. 

The cooks in the factories receive a fixed daily wage of up to EUR 4 (USD 5), regardless of the number of kilograms of ephedrine extracted. The large amounts of equipment required and the significant amounts of solid and liquid waste produced make these factories easier to identify than the smaller compounds from satellite images. A 450-kg batch of ephedra produces around 15 kg of ephedrine.

The production of methamphetamine

In contrast to the extraction of ephedrine, the production of methamphetamine requires greater knowledge and skills. Cooks who can produce high-quality methamphetamine may earn up to EUR 10.56 (USD 12.5) per kg.

The quality of methamphetamine is variable. Some inexperienced cooks produce methamphetamine for only the domestic market using alternative chemicals, such as diesel fuel instead of expensive toluene, or inferior quality iodine and xylene. The domestic grade product is sold for EUR 178 (USD 210) per kg, whereas the export quality product costs EUR 258 (USD 305) per kg.

A price-sensitive market

The methamphetamine industry in Bakwa is price-sensitive, with low margins, little liquidity and a heavy reliance on credit. Laboratory owners will start to produce only when prices of ephedrine and methamphetamine rise above a certain threshold. 

Costs and profits involved in  producing ephedrine are often quite low. For example, it costs EUR 457 (USD 540) to process a 450-kg batch of ephedra into 15 kg of ephedrine, which can be sold for almost EUR 846 (USD 1 000) (EUR 56 (USD 66) per kg), generating profits of around EUR 26 (USD 31) per kg. Also taking into account the overheads of an ephedrine laboratory, which may include a solar-powered deep well costing around EUR 4 228 (USD 5 000), explains why there is little interest in producing ephedrine when prices fall below EUR 47 (USD 55) per kg.

The cost of producing methamphetamine is significantly higher than the cost of extracting ephedrine, costing EUR 3 551 (USD 4 200) to process a batch of 20 kg of ephedrine into 15 kg of methamphetamine. The profit margins for sale in Bakwa are even less attractive than for ephedrine, with methamphetamine currently priced at around EUR 258 (USD 305) per kg, making profits little more than EUR 19.68 (USD 23.28) per kg. As with other commodities in Afghanistan, the high cost of doing business coupled with low profit margins appears to encourage an economic model where there is an incentive to maximise volume so that sufficient profits can be earned.

With such low margins available on methamphetamine locally, Afghan producers engage into cross-border smuggling to increase profit margins. For example, methamphetamine exported to Iran would achieve more attractive prices, with those prices increasing in relation to the distance the commodity can be smuggled: almost EUR 286 (USD 338) per kg on the Iranian border in June 2020, compared with between EUR 905 (USD 1 070) and EUR 1 353 (USD 1 600) per kg in central and western Iran.

A growing synthetic drug economy

It is possible that a proportion of the ephedrine produced is transported for production elsewhere, either in other parts of Afghanistan or in neighbouring countries, such as Iran, or in areas on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, such as in Baramchar, a focal point for the illicit drugs industry in southern Afghanistan. 

The scale of ephedrine production implies that 2 400 trucks per year would be unloading ephedra in Abdul Wadood Bazaar in Bakwa, providing jobs for local drivers, labourers, traders and guards. It is estimated that the production of ephedrine may employ around 2 300 people in the area, each earning between EUR 63 (USD 75) and EUR 101 (USD 120) per month. A further 200 jobs would be supported locally if the ephedrine were converted into methamphetamine in Bakwa.

The most skilled methamphetamine cooks earn up to EUR 2 049 (USD 2 424) per month. Combining these totals, synthetic drugs contribute up to EUR 46.8 million (USD 55.4 million) to the local economy in wages. If the potential amount of ephedrine produced in Bakwa was converted into methamphetamine locally, the industry could be worth an estimated EUR 203 million (USD 240 million) in Bakwa alone. 

Afghanistan has the potential of becoming a major methamphetamine-producing region

There are 192 000 km2 of land higher than 2 500 metres, where it is reported that ephedra could potentially be grown. Therefore, potential exists for increasing the production of this crop. Afghanistan is beginning to penetrate international markets. Iran and Pakistan provide considerable consumption markets, but other potential markets also exist in the region.

There are also reports of large amounts of methamphetamine connected with Afghanistan being seized. In February 2020, the Sri Lankan Navy seized 400 kg of heroin and 100 kg of methamphetamine. Moreover, in May 2020, 800 kg of methamphetamine that had been smuggled from Iran (originating in Afghanistan) was seized in Indonesia. Authorities in Australia have also witnessed an increase in the amount of methamphetamine being seized from Iran, some of which has been identified as being of plant origin, suggesting that Afghanistan may be behind it.

The low wholesale price of methamphetamine in Afghanistan, currently around EUR 237 (USD 280) per kg, compares very favourably with the high price in Myanmar, of almost EUR 2 537 (USD 3 000) per kg. This price differential will be exploited, not only by Afghan drug producers and traders but also by those in neighbouring countries. The scale of methamphetamine production and the increasing amounts of both seized in the region may indicate a growing international division of labour in the production of and trade in methamphetamine. 

Given the regular heroin traffic and well-established trafficking routes between south-west Asia and Europe, the methamphetamine produced in Afghanistan is becoming an increasing threat.

© 2021 Besim Likmeta. All rights reserved.

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